Friday, June 29, 2007

If we ignore the problem, it might go away

So you may conclude about the US illegal immigrant problem from reading Robert Dunn's article on TCS Daily:
As the debate over illegal immigration from Mexico rages in Washington and across the country, and as the administration's reform bill hangs by a thread, few Americans are aware that this problem will automatically decline and eventually become a vague memory.

There has been a stunning decline in the fertility rate in Mexico, which means that, in a few years there will not be many teenagers in Mexico looking for work in the United States or anywhere else. If this trend in the fertility rate continues, Mexico will resemble Japan and Italy - rapidly aging populations with too few young workers to support the economy.

According to the World Bank's 2007 Annual Development Indicators, in 1990 Mexico had a fertility rate of 3.3 children per female, but by 2005, that number had fallen by 36 percent to 2.1, which is the Zero Population Growth rate. That is an enormous decline in the number of Mexican infants per female. The large number of women currently in their reproductive years means that there are still quite a few babies, but as this group ages, the number of infants will decline sharply. If this trend toward fewer children per female continues, there being no apparent reason for it to cease, the number of young people in the Mexican population will decline significantly just when the number of elderly is rising. As labor markets in Mexico tighten and wage rates rise, far fewer Mexican youngsters will be interested in coming to the United States. Since our baby boomers will be retiring at the same time, we could face a severe labor shortage.

There have been significant declines in fertility rates across Latin America, but Mexico's has been unusually sharp. In El Salvador, another country from which immigrants come, a 3.7 rate in 1990 became 2.5 by 2005. Guatemala is now at 4.3, but that is far lower than it was in 1990. Jamaica, another source of illegal U. S. immigrants, has fallen from 2.9 to 2.4 over the same period. Chile and Costa Rica, at 2.0, are actually slightly below a replacement rate. Trinidad and Tobago, at 1.6, is well below ZPG. For all of Latin American and the Caribbean, a rate of 3.2 in 1990 fell to 2.4 in 2005, a decline of 25 percent. This means less pressure on the United States from illegal immigrants from the entire area, not just from Mexico. A powerful demographic transition is well underway, and soon many of these countries may be worried about there being too few babies rather than too many. We may miss this labor, and wonder how we will replace it.

What is going on in Latin America? Better education and improved job opportunities for women mean that it has become quite expensive for them to leave the labor force to have more children. The improved availability of birth control technology and liberalization of abortion rules in some countries mean that it is easier for women to avoid that outcome.

Fertility rates are declining across the globe, but the change is particular striking to our south. The world fertility rate fell from 3.1 to 2.6 over the 1990-2005 period. The population bomb is becoming a fire cracker.

I can't imagine who will be more disappointed by this development, the Democrat party or the Catholic Church. One thing is for certain - the cost of landscaping services will balloon over the next two decades.


Blogger Harry Eagar said...

Or perhaps the rate is declining because the population is in despair?

Because it lives in a failed state?

A great deal of the blame for which lies in the evacuation of the livelier fraction of the population north?

Anyhow, I heard from someone that the cheapest product in the market isn't always the best buy.

Who was that? O, yeah. Me.

Well, seriously. Why isn't Mexico rich?

June 29, 2007 4:01 PM  
Blogger Bret said...

Don't worry about landscaping costs. Within two decades, landscaping robots will be very well developed.

harry eagar,

Why would Mexico be rich? Poverty is the default state of a State. Besides, things are getting better in Mexico - just very slowly.

June 29, 2007 5:07 PM  
Blogger Oroborous said...

The illegal immigration problem will go away, but not necessarily just because fewer people may seek to emigrate to America - it'll also be because, maybe even primarily because, pretty soon there will be far more jobs available than there will be people to fill them.

Over at Bret's blog, Great Guys, he posts about the work his company is doing on ag robots, (entitled "Agricultural Robots"), because there is already a shortage of workers desperate enough to do stoop labor for a pittance.

June 29, 2007 7:03 PM  
Blogger Bret said...

oroborous wrote: "...there is already a shortage of workers desperate enough to do stoop labor for a pittance."

It's getting well beyond the pittance stage, by the way. The Washington Apple Growers pay their workers as much as $25/hour. And still they have trouble attracting workers.

June 29, 2007 7:14 PM  

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