Monday, October 23, 2006

Beaten by the French? Sack ray blur!

As Europe Grays, France has Baby Boom
While falling birthrates threaten to undermine economies and social stability across much of an aging Europe, French fertility rates are increasing. France now has the second-highest fertility rate in Europe -- 1.94 children born per woman, exceeded slightly by Ireland's rate of 1.99 ...

But the propensity of women here to have more babies has little to do with notions of French romance or the population's formerly strong religious ties to the Roman Catholic Church.

France heavily subsidizes children and families from pregnancy to young adulthood with liberal maternity leaves and part-time work laws for women. The government also covers some child-care costs of toddlers up to 3 years old and offers free child-care centers from age 3 to kindergarten, in addition to tax breaks and discounts on transportation, cultural events and shopping.


Meanwhile, in the allegedly fecund USA, the White non-Hispanic lifetime fertility is down to 1.8

BTW, for an interesting, and apparently agenda free, overview of long term global demographic trends, click here.

8 Comments:

Blogger David said...

But who cares about white non-Hispanic life-time fertility?

October 23, 2006 9:34 PM  
Blogger Peter Burnet said...

Yes Skipper, what is your point about excluding Hispanics?

And if we are going to play that unpleasant game, how about giving us France's figure for "white non-Muslim lifetime fertility"?

October 24, 2006 5:25 AM  
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October 24, 2006 1:19 PM  
Blogger David said...

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October 24, 2006 2:19 PM  
Blogger Hey Skipper said...

Peter, David:

What is your point about excluding Hispanics?

There are a couple points, not necessarily in priority order.

First and foremost, the Hispanic birthrate is almost certainly strongly related to the recency of immigration. The rate of first generation Hispanics is very high compared to other groups. Follow on generations will almost certainly have fertility rates more closely resembling the group the will most closely come to resemble: White non-Hispanics.

Second, If that assertion is true, then suggestions that France is any more demographically imperiled than the US seem a little strained.

Finally, if I include the Hispanic rate, then the US rate slightly exceeds France's, meaning I wouldn't have been able to use the self deprecating "Sack ray blur" in the title.

And if we are going to play that unpleasant game, how about giving us France's figure for "white non-Muslim lifetime fertility"?

I don't think the game is at all unpleasant. Fertility rates among different groups may very well say valuable things about those groups.

More importantly, though, France prohibits gathering data by ethnic group. I didn't include the information because it simply (despite about an hour of Googling) isn't available.

October 24, 2006 2:30 PM  
Blogger Hey Skipper said...

... meaning I wouldn't have been able to use the self deprecating "Sack ray blur" in the title.

Less obtusely, "... meaning I would have had to change the title, thereby eliminating the self deprecating 'Sack ray blur'. The occasions where France beats the US at something are so few and far between, I'm not likely to get another chance."

Memo to self: Preview is my friend.

October 24, 2006 2:33 PM  
Blogger Harry Eagar said...

Well, I'm not going to do it, but we could do a thought experiment.

Let's say that in France, among the fecund women 20% are North African and the rest European.

And that the N. African women average 6 children and the Europeans 1.

Your overall average would be:

October 24, 2006 7:56 PM  
Blogger David said...

Muslim, but very respectful of Jesus.

October 25, 2006 7:51 AM  

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